# Safe Rates & Term Structure Results

| Model | Dep Var | N | Countries | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1: Z → real 10y bond | real_bond_10y | 803 | 23 | 0.108 |
| M2: Z → real 3m rate | real_short_3m | 813 | 23 | 0.005 |
| M3: Z → term spread | term_spread | 781 | 23 | 0.113 |
| M4: age ratios → real 10y | real_bond_10y | 803 | 23 | 0.139 |
| M5: Z×KAOPEN → real 10y | real_bond_10y | 803 | 23 | 0.196 |
| M6: OECD Z → real 10y | real_bond_10y | 803 | 23 | 0.108 |
| M6b: OECD Z → term spread | term_spread | 781 | 23 | 0.113 |
| M7: Z_lag5 → real 10y | real_bond_10y | 803 | 23 | 0.155 |
| M8: ΔZ → Δreal 10y | d_real_bond_10y | 780 | 23 | 0.653 |

## Key Coefficients

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1: Z → real 10y bond | Z_1 | 43.7238 | 18.0098 | 0.0154 | ** |
| M1: Z → real 10y bond | Z_2 | -4.6309 | 2.3736 | 0.0514 | * |
| M1: Z → real 10y bond | Z_3 | 0.1347 | 0.0881 | 0.1264 |  |
| M2: Z → real 3m rate | Z_1 | 60.0749 | 20.9837 | 0.0043 | *** |
| M2: Z → real 3m rate | Z_2 | -7.0133 | 2.7843 | 0.0120 | ** |
| M2: Z → real 3m rate | Z_3 | 0.2258 | 0.1037 | 0.0297 | ** |
| M3: Z → term spread | Z_1 | -10.6536 | 11.5529 | 0.3567 |  |
| M3: Z → term spread | Z_2 | 1.4790 | 1.5314 | 0.3345 |  |
| M3: Z → term spread | Z_3 | -0.0549 | 0.0568 | 0.3344 |  |
| M4: age ratios → real 10y | old_dep | -16.9266 | 4.8058 | 0.0005 | *** |
| M4: age ratios → real 10y | youth_dep | 17.2517 | 5.9420 | 0.0038 | *** |
| M5: Z×KAOPEN → real 10y | Z_1 | 34.8831 | 39.1688 | 0.3734 |  |
| M5: Z×KAOPEN → real 10y | Z_2 | -4.2601 | 5.2484 | 0.4172 |  |
| M5: Z×KAOPEN → real 10y | Z_3 | 0.1492 | 0.1957 | 0.4461 |  |
| M5: Z×KAOPEN → real 10y | Z_1_x_kaopen | 6.6911 | 17.8278 | 0.7075 |  |
| M5: Z×KAOPEN → real 10y | Z_2_x_kaopen | -0.5459 | 2.3821 | 0.8188 |  |
| M5: Z×KAOPEN → real 10y | Z_3_x_kaopen | 0.0070 | 0.0885 | 0.9368 |  |
| M6: OECD Z → real 10y | Z_1 | 43.7238 | 18.0098 | 0.0154 | ** |
| M6: OECD Z → real 10y | Z_2 | -4.6309 | 2.3736 | 0.0514 | * |
| M6: OECD Z → real 10y | Z_3 | 0.1347 | 0.0881 | 0.1264 |  |
| M6b: OECD Z → term spread | Z_1 | -10.6536 | 11.5529 | 0.3567 |  |
| M6b: OECD Z → term spread | Z_2 | 1.4790 | 1.5314 | 0.3345 |  |
| M6b: OECD Z → term spread | Z_3 | -0.0549 | 0.0568 | 0.3344 |  |
| M7: Z_lag5 → real 10y | Z_1_lag5 | 52.1578 | 14.2979 | 0.0003 | *** |
| M7: Z_lag5 → real 10y | Z_2_lag5 | -6.1054 | 2.0409 | 0.0029 | *** |
| M7: Z_lag5 → real 10y | Z_3_lag5 | 0.1972 | 0.0794 | 0.0132 | ** |
| M8: ΔZ → Δreal 10y | d_Z_1 | -11.8687 | 23.7484 | 0.6174 |  |
| M8: ΔZ → Δreal 10y | d_Z_2 | 1.1009 | 3.0904 | 0.7218 |  |
| M8: ΔZ → Δreal 10y | d_Z_3 | -0.0242 | 0.1155 | 0.8340 |  |

*Controls: rgdp_growth, inflation, fiscal_bal_gdp, kaopen, nfa_gdp_lag*
*PanelGLS with AR(1) correction, no fixed effects*